Tropical Depression Fred weakened into a remnant low today north of Cuba but conditions are favorable for development in the Central and Eastern Gulf as the remnants of Fred move through, with relatively light shear, and above average sea surface temperatures.
Fred will likely re-form into a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow, and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm.
Fred’s outer bands move into North Alabama by Tuesday morning, enhancing our rain and storm chances Tuesday. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible Tuesday as the remnants of Fred move through. While we don’t anticipate widespread severe weather, a few intense showers and storms are possible Tuesday, and we’ll have to monitor the potential for rotating showers in the outer bands of Fred.
Tropical Storm Grace
Behind Fred, Tropical Storm Grace is looking relatively impressive in the Atlantic this afternoon. Grace is forecast to take a somewhat similar path across Hispaniola and Cuba. These islands have high terrain that can often severely disrupt storms like Grace, but like Fred, Grace is forecast to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, where we’ll have to monitor Grace’s progress closely. Grace is particularly bad news for Haiti (on the western side of Hispaniola), where a massive earthquake has ravaged the island’s infrastructure and left at least 227 dead according to the AP. Grace’s high winds and heavy rain will make search and rescue much harder Monday and Tuesday, and could lead to additional infrastructure collapse in hard hit areas.