Additional Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms Later This Week

More heavy rain this week: It was a stormy Sunday evening across the Tennessee Valley. There were reports of damage mainly over western sections. Rain totals were around 1-2″ with some areas getting over 3″.  Here are a few totals:

  • Town Creek: 3.30″
  • Leighton: 2.61″
  • Madison: 2.49″
  • Florence: 2.07″
  • Arab: 1.89″
  • Woodville: 1.54″

We’ll stay dry through the rest of 2019, but another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely Thursday and Friday.

Another system moves in Thursday and Friday, bringing another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

The heaviest rain will probably be Thursday evening through Friday morning. Additional rainfall totals of 1-3″ are likely, with some spots potentially seeing more than 4″.

Considering how saturated things are right now, this could cause some flooding issues across the Tennessee Valley.

Will there be a severe weather threat?: The forecast regarding severe weather is really difficult at this stage. The past couple of storm systems we have dealt with have very strong dynamics (the muscle driving stormy weather), but have been lacking in unstable air. It’s going to be a close call as to whether the dynamics of this system are strong enough to lift some warmer, more humid air north into the Tennessee Valley that could support severe storms. At this point, I don’t think we can forecast a severe weather threat with too much confidence, but we certainly can’t rule it out at this point either. The CIPS analogs, which I’ve discussed on the blog a few times before, shows that patterns like this one can support severe weather in north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, but they certainly don’t always.

The bottom line is, we don’t know for certain whether this setup could support any severe weather. Things may become a little more clear as we go through the week, but these events are typically hard to forecast. Be aware that we may have another round of storms to watch closely as we head into the end of the work week, and keep up with any changes in the forecast.

Meteorologist Alex Puckett

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/meteorologistalexpuckett

Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/puckettwx

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