A few light showers will be possible at the end of this week, but our next best chance of a good soaking rain will come Monday as a cold front moves across the state.
Warm, humid air will build in ahead of that cold front on Monday, and that warm, humid air may provide a little energy in the atmosphere that thunderstorms could tap in to.
At this point, this does not look like a significant severe weather set-up for us, but I can’t totally take the threat off the table just yet.
The latest CIPS analog runs (a tool we use to compare a forecasted pattern to what has happened when the pattern looked like that in the past) shows that we can see strong to severe storms across the deep south when this kind of pattern sets up.
This map would suggest that the best chance for any strong storms would be west of us, and based on how the models are currently timing out this front, that would probably be the case, but this kind of pattern bears watching over the next few days. This kind of setup can occasionally bring a few strong storms to the Tennessee Valley. Historically speaking, mid December is a time of year we can see severe weather across the Tennessee Valley, so it’s not surprising we’re having a setup like this. While I don’t anticipate any big issues right now, we may have to babysit the radar and monitor storms Monday afternoon and evening.
We’ll continue to watch it and fine tune the forecast over the next few days, but I do want to stress that as of right now, we don’t have severe weather in the forecast, but the pattern could support a few strong storms Monday evening depending on how this system develops over the next few days. Regardless of whether we see any strong storms or not, we will see a good bit of rain Monday. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days will likely be over an inch, and some could see rainfall totals exceed 2 inches.
Most of that rain will fall Monday and Monday night.
Meteorologist Alex Puckett