Remember early October? The first six days of the month averaged about 15ºF hotter than average; two of those days had highs in the 100s. It seemed like cool – let alone ‘cold’ – weather would never come.
November’s average temperature so far is about 8ºF below average. That’s just a little chill compared to what happens for the rest of this week!
A strong, Arctic cold front surges in Monday night. Behind it, we expect a brief change from rain to a wintry mix (sleet and snow). The air coming into Alabama and Tennessee on Tuesday is coming straight from Wisconsin: where snow covers the ground right now:
Let’s be clear here: we do NOT expect any impacts to travel on Tuesday morning. The ground is too warm and wintry precipitation too light to make this a ‘dicey’ situation.
The worst case scenario is this:
- Leftover water from the rain (or melting mixture) could freeze in a few patches – especially in Middle Tennessee.
- A light dusting of sleet or snow could cover a road or bridge here or there (impossible to know exactly which one or two ahead of time).
- A fraction of an inch of snow/sleet could cause some slick travel near/north of US 64 in Middle Tennessee. Most roads will be passable even if that occurs, but you will want to be aware of any patchy ice.
Pavement temperatures are so warm that even if an accumulation of snow or sleet temporarily ices a road, it will start melting when the precipitation stops.
The big story is the COLD.
It will be frigid on Tuesday. In fact, this would be the coldest November 12th on record (daytime high). The coldest ‘high’ for the 12th is 40ºF (in 1968). We’re projecting 36ºF for a ‘high,’ but the mid-afternoon temperature may never climb higher than 34ºF with a wind chill in the 20s!
Tuesday night’s low won’t be a record most likely. The forecast of 19ºF (occurring early Wednesday morning) is three degrees above the record of 16ºF set in 1911.
It will be the coldest ‘early November’ temperature since 1991, though! Huntsville has only recorded teens six times on or before November 15th going back to 1907! This is ultra rare cold for this time of the year!