One hundred percent: we now have a 100% chance of rain in the forecast for Friday and a 90% chance on Saturday. It’s going to rain, and it’s going to rain a lot; it won’t rain equally across Alabama and Tennessee, though.
Showers march northward overnight, and rain begins as early as 4 AM to 6 AM south of Huntsville expanding north into Tennessee by 10 AM Friday.
How much rain are we talking? It’s going to rain for around 12 to 18 hours Friday into Friday night and then rain some more early Saturday morning before we get a break.
The storm system causing the rain will be slow to move east, so the rain may slow down or even stop for a few hours during the day Saturday. That will allow temperatures to jump into the 70s with a stiff southeast wind. The longer it takes for the rain and thunderstorms to move back into Alabama and Middle Tennessee, the better chance we have of seeing a few strong storms Saturday afternoon and evening.
In all, we still expect around 2-3” of rain on average from Friday morning to Saturday night: some as little as 1” near the Georgia border to as much as 6” near Pickwick Lake on the Alabama/Mississippi/Tennessee border.
Weekend washout? Friday is the all-day, guaranteed rain out. Saturday has some morning rain, a 4-6 hour window of little/no rainfall (from around 9 AM to about 3 PM), and then a later round of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front Saturday evening.
College football games across the region will be affected by rain and storms at some point: whether that be wet seats and sloppy ground from rain that’s already fallen or from lightning delays for the later games.
Because of the changeable nature of a forecast like this, we encourage you to download Live Alert 19! You can get the latest updated forecast, ‘Futurecast’ rainfall, and any alerts required for your area or for any area of interest in the country. This works great for college football travels!
Sunday looks better; our chance of rain is only for the early morning hours before sunrise. The afternoon looks drier and pleasant: highs in the low-70s with a northwest wind.
Frosty or stormy for Halloween? The fast-paced pattern that starts revving up this time of year can make our computer models look like chumps and thereby make forecasters look like chumps.
Monday and Tuesday look like nice days: seasonable for late October. A cold front gets closer on Wednesday and Thursday (Halloween). Timing is everything with this forecast! The American-run GFS model blows that front through quickly leaving it cold on Halloween with a freeze in the morning. The (lately) more-reliable European guidance slows it down keeping it warmer with a chance of some rain.
We’re leaning the way of the slower front/warmer and wetter solution for Halloween right now; however, it’s not set in stone just yet. Regardless of the timing, we do expect it to get cold enough for a widespread freeze before November 2nd.