Brutally Hot Start To The Week, But Cooler Weather Is In Sight

Record-breaking temperatures occurred over the weekend — again — as thermometers reached 97 degrees Sunday in both Huntsville and Muscle Shoals.

Unfortunately, the brutal heat will continue this week. We’re likely to meet or break record highs Monday through Thursday, with highs in the upper 90s.

Cooler air on the way: There is cooler weather on the way. It still remains to be seen exactly how much cooler, but the models have been consistent in showing a cool down. In long range situations like this, ensemble models are usually the best tool for a meteorologist.

This is a plot of the European ensemble model. Ensembles work by running the same model with slightly different starting positions. That gives you a wide range of possibilities and can give you a good idea of a range of possibilities, and that’s usually the best way to look at long term forecasting trends.

Looking towards the October 5 time range, temperatures do drop, but it’s still up in the air if that drop is only a few degrees or a big time cool down. You can see that the model shows a wider range of options when the cooler air moves in because those boxes and whiskers get wider towards the end of the plot. That’s because there’s a wider range of high temperature possibilities. So, while we know it’s going to be cooler,  we don’t know whether this is just going from very hot to warm, or our first taste of fall weather.

We’ve got the details on if there might be increased rain chances with this cool down on the forecast discussion. 

 

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