Storms Next Week: when will it start raining again?

The over-all weather pattern does not ‘favor’ significant rain anytime soon. The two primary go-to medium-range computer modeling suites (GFS and ECMWF) show some rain: just not a lot of rain.

GFS Futurecast Rainfall

Friday morning’s GFS projects 0.4” of rainfall for Huntsville between Tuesday and Wednesday and nothing else for the entire week. The Thursday night ECMWF (referred to often as ‘the Euro’) only projected 0.2” for the same timeframe, but the latest one Friday morning is down to a trace of rain. That’s not a huge difference, but consistency among the guidance and consistent trends in guidance build confidence in the future outcome.

We have a 10-20% chance of rain on Sunday/Monday for the chance of an isolated ‘pop-up’ shower or storm. There’s nothing in the area to really drive widespread storms, but occasionally they can develop simply because of heat, humidity and small-scale boundaries created by land use, mountains and valleys, or even lakes.

The chance of rain is in the 30% range on Tuesday and Wednesday because there will be a series of weak disturbances in the area that should be strong enough to generate some thunderstorms. Confidence is high that there will be storms in the area; however, confidence is very low in timing, impact, and exactly which points get rain and which ones get nothing.

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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