There’s a windy, stormy period of weather coming for North Alabama and Southern Tennessee after a break from the rain through Wednesday.
Most of Thursday looks dry but windy. Occasional wind gusts may top 35 miles per hour Thursday starting in the morning and going all day long.
A cold front moves into the region in the evening, and a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms develops in Mississippi between 7 PM and 11 PM, and they move into Alabama crossing the Tennessee Valley between midnight and 6 AM. Severe storms? It seems like the threat is small if it exists at all, but we will keep a close eye on it!
Showers and storms move out on Friday morning, but the wet weather won’t stay away for a long time!
Saturday and Sunday: Saturday morning starts dry, but rain and thunderstorms boiling over South Alabama early in the day move north in the afternoon and evening. A warm front leads the way for the returning wet weather, and it also adds fuel to the fire so to speak for some potentially strong storms Saturday night into Sunday morning.
We are too far from the ‘event’ to see the specifics right now, but here’s what we can see:
Timing: 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday (window will narrow as confidence in the position/timing increases).
Storm threats: Wind shear and instability together provide an environment in which severe storms could develop and grow powerful. A line of storms moves into Alabama and Southern Tennessee after 10 PM Saturday, and some individual storms may develop ahead of it. Within the line and within the individual cells, we could see high winds, hail, and at least some risk of a tornado. How high is the risk? That’s not known yet, so here’s what you do with this information: pay attention. Let this be a heads-up and not a final plan to deal with stormy weather ahead.
How much rain? Two rounds of rain and storms in the next week add up to around 1-2” of rain on average with a few places getting as much as 3” where more than one heavy downpour passes.