A powerful storm system moving up the East Coast puts us in a position for a beautiful Wednesday. Dry air blowing south across the eastern US keeps us clear and dry for now. A fast-paced weather pattern brings back two good opportunities for some wet weather soon; the first one of those arrives on Thursday.
Timing Thursday’s rainfall: The Storm Prediction Center outlines an area of severe weather risk mainly west of Alabama and Tennessee on Thursday:
As of now, the first half of Thursday looks dry; the second half of the day looks very wet: as in the wettest day since March 9th in Huntsville (the last time we had more than 1” of rain in 24 hours).
The risk of severe storms technically touches a few western Alabama counties; it does not look like we will have significant severe weather in this state on Thursday. We’re missing the fuel and strong dynamics for widespread intense storms, but we will have plenty of lift and moisture available for widespread rain and some scattered thunderstorms here and there that could drop more than an inch of rain in spots through Friday morning.
Friday and the weekend: Showers move out Friday morning, and it gets warm and dry in the afternoon: highs in the mid-70s. We’ll stay dry Friday night and most of Saturday, but there will be some scattered showers building northward in the afternoon and evening: from Central Alabama toward North Alabama by 7 PM. Saturday’s 20% chance of rain is more of a ‘heads up’ for the potential of a little rain than a guarantee that rain will occur where you are at any given moment.
The 50% chance of rain on Sunday and Monday is a ‘for sure’ of rain, but the timing is still a little suspect (as is the risk of severe weather for Sunday evening and early Monday morning).
The most likely scenario is this: showers develop during the daylight hours Sunday, but the heaviest rain and potential for some storms comes in Sunday evening through Monday morning. Total rainfall in that time frame looks substantial: around 1-2” on average.
Behind the Sunday/Monday rain, there’s still a chance of some showers on Tuesday as a cool front lingers in the area, but it does not get cold again anytime soon! We expect warmer-than-average temperatures through mid-April.