February 2018 will end up around the fifth-warmest on record. That’s three-straight ‘warm’ Februarys for North Alabama. Last February was the warmest on record; 2017 is second on the list.
It’s 22 days until the First Day of Spring (the Vernal Equinox), but we are about to enter a very cold period for this late in the winter season! February’s first seven days were 16.6ºF above average; March’s first seven days may be that much more below below average!
Tuesday’s GEFS 5-day average temperature ‘anomaly’ (departure from normal) showed a roughly 15ºF to 18ºF fall below the seasonal normals for the first week of March.
Is it going to snow? Don’t hold your breath. Word is out that some modeling is showing snow. Where have we heard that before? Let’s look at it realistically: strong push of cold dry air, model showing precipitation behind it. That doesn’t usually work out very well if you’re hoping for a good accumulation of snow; however, between Sunday evening and Monday morning some snowflakes are possible.
We’re too far out to ‘know’ if there will be anything significant, but it does not look very likely at this point.
No snow? None at all? That’s not exactly what I’m saying here.
This system is very much like the one that caused the great Snow Bust of 2019 a few weeks ago. At this point, phooey on the models and their snowfall output. Until we get the right kind of system, it’s nothing major – if anything at all.