Get ready for a soaking rain! February has not been a very wet month so far, but that’s about to change. Showers developing Monday evening expand in coverage and get heavier overnight into Tuesday morning. Huntsville has only measured 0.3” of rain so far this month; we’ll triple that and then some beginning early Tuesday.
A cold front passing through North Alabama and Southern Tennessee Tuesday brings a soaking rain ahead of it and some cooler air behind it. Expect ‘high’ temperatures (60s) early in the day; it slowly drops into the 50s through the afternoon and evening ending up in the 30s by Wednesday morning. Wednesday is the driest day of the week; Thursday and Friday bring yet another chance of some rain and a few thunderstorms ahead of a cool, dry weekend.
Rain, thunder and wind: Scattered showers early Tuesday gradually get heavier with a band of rain and some thunderstorms moving through during the morning. The heavier rain begins in The Shoals around 3-4 AM, Huntsville-Decatur-Athens around 5-6 AM, and Albertville, Fort Payne and Scottsboro around 7-8 AM. That initial wave ends early in the day, but some scattered showers, clouds, and a cool breeze last through the afternoon.
Occasional wind gusts overnight and on Tuesday could be enough to rearrange patio furniture and garbage cans! Expect gusts over 25 miles per hour from the southwest ahead of the front and from the northwest behind it after sunrise Tuesday.
Total rainfall will end up around 0.75” to 1.25” in most communities with a few spots tallying up as much as 1.5” in all by the time the rain ends Tuesday afternoon.
A Note About the GFS Guidance for Next Week: Yes. I saw what the 12Z and 18Z GFS tried to do to us for next week (if you don’t know what that is, good for you…keep it that way, your stress level will thank you). It might be right, but there certainly isn’t any real evidence that it is at this point. The snow-no-show two weeks ago should make anyone considering sharing very long-range snow ideas think twice about it and still refrain from it.
We actually did some analysis of snowfall in the Tennessee Valley region, and we found that since 1960…
THERE IS NO TREND. We have a very chaotic looking record in which there’s no obvious ‘peak’ time for snow in the winter months here. Sure, it’s easy to see that most snow around here happens in January or February, but there was no distinct week or two in which snow is more or less likely.
So why bring it up? People like to talk about snow whether they want to admit it or not. We enjoy the conversation, but we never want to dangle a carrot in front of you so to speak.
Snow is not likely anytime soon. Is it possible? It’s still February, and we still have March to go. Yes, it’s possible. I can promise you, though, that we’re interested in being right, not first, when it comes to something like this.