Drying out Thursday, but not warming up!

It was a windy and wet Wednesday! Gusts were up to 39 mph with 1″-2″ of rain!

It turns colder Thursday! Expect highs in the 30s and 40s with a brisk north wind and another hard freeze Thursday night.

Snow or no?  For now, it’s a solid ‘no.’  The deterministic (meaning ‘one solution given’) forecast models have been trying to make it snow around here for several weeks now with no real snow actually coming.  The same kind of thing is still happening with the guidance, and we’re careful to make sure we’re forecasting real weather and not wishcasting for some snow.  We’ll occasionally update you with some of the things that the model guidance shows, but as of now, none of the ‘possibly significant’ snow on those models looks realistic for North Alabama and Southern Tennessee at least in the next 5-7 days.

We do see some chance of another changeover from rain to some light snow next Tuesday after some flurries in the area this weekend, but there is no evidence right now that honestly supports a ‘forecast’ for more than snow flurries.

The Weekend:  A deep trough in the jet stream and a forecast area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico grabbed some attention earlier this week because some modeling gave us a chance of a big snow; that’s now off the table.  Saturday and Sunday look mostly dry; however, some snow flurries are possible under a partly to mostly cloudy sky Sunday.  It won’t be terribly cold; expect highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s this weekend.

More cold weather: This active weather pattern we find ourselves in will keep the temperature swings coming in the next 10 days.  Cool-but-not-cold air this weekend leaves highs in the 40s, but another shot of Arctic air drives us down into the 30s for highs and 20s/10s for overnight lows toward the middle of next week.

Should any snow come along with that, the temperatures could be lower; however, snow is a low-confidence, low-probability item on the agenda at this time. The forecast is subject to change leading up to the middle of next week, so be sure to check the The Weather Authority’s forecast discussion for additional forecasting analysis.

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