Thick fog Monday morning left it damp and cool for most of the day even as the sun returned, and since it’s still so damp outside, more patchy thick fog develops tonight. Temperatures drop low enough that some patchy ‘freezing fog’ is possible in some of the colder valleys: especially near larger bodies of water like the lakes along the Tennessee River, the Wills Valley, and the Paint Rock and Flint Rivers.
Expect lows in the lower and middle 30s early Tuesday with some frost and fog; we’ll get another day of nearly-full sunshine with afternoon highs between 52ºF and 59ºF around most of North Alabama and Southern Tennessee. Some high, thin clouds drift in on Tuesday, but more clouds thicken on Wednesday leading to a rainy set-up for the end of the week!
When does the rain arrive? A rainy set-up begins Wednesday night with some scattered showers and really sets ‘in’ on Thursday with a 90% chance of rain at any point through the day. While most of the rain looks relatively light, some downpours could add up to more than an inch of rain in spots; on average, we’re expecting around 1/2” to 1” of total rainfall from Wednesday night to Friday night in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee.
Did someone say ‘snow?’ Yes and no. There’s always a chance until there isn’t one, but this looks like one of those deals in which some snowflakes fall but have little to no real chance of accumulating more than a dusting or fraction of an inch if that on Friday afternoon and evening.
The storm system moving through later this week gets ‘deeper’ (stronger) and the air above our heads gets colder because of it. It looks cold enough to generate snow by Friday; however, most of it will melt before it can get to the ground because there’s very little fresh cold air coming in at the surface. So it will snow like crazy about 2,000 feet above our heads; most of it will melt before it gets to the ground OR as it gets to the ground on Friday.
Weekend through Christmas Day: It’s safe to say this will be a ‘normal’ period around Christmas for North Alabama: highs in the 50s, no signs of snow, and a chance of some rain.
The weekend looks fairly quiet: a morning freeze on Saturday and an afternoon high in the low-50s. Sunday looks a bit milder with some rain moving in late in the day.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day: no snow, but some rain is possible (more-so on Monday than Tuesday). Expect highs in the 50s through Christmas Day, but there’s a chance that we’ll be in the 60s by next Wednesday!
By the way, the historical chance of a White Christmas (more than 1″ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day) is only 1% in Huntsville, 2% in Muscle Shoals, and only 2% in Nashville. The odds of having a high temperature at or above 70ºF on Christmas Day are higher (but not much): only around 4.5 percent! We’ve only been above 70ºF four times since 1907 on Christmas Day.