A nice area of high pressure will drift across the Southeast early this week, putting us under a steady stream of northerly air. That helps to keep the next few days fair, and quite seasonable for mid-December!
Expect partly sunny skies Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s and morning lows in the 30s. The pleasant weather lasts at least through Wednesday morning, but a change in our weather pattern will begin to take hold by Wednesday afternoon. Our winds shift to the south Wednesday afternoon, while winds pick up and clouds increase. By Wednesday evening a few showers will be moving in, as the beginning of our next round of wet weather sets up.
Our next system spreads rain over us throughout Thursday and Friday, with a few periods of heavy rain possible. That yields anywhere from 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rain by the time we dry out Saturday morning.
Rain for Thursday and Friday is looking more and more likely, so now the main question about this system is if the air behind it will be cold enough to produce a little snow. Some model guidance is suggesting flurries are possible for the Tennessee Valley on Friday, but it is still too early to bet on snow.
First, we have to get in air cold enough to make snowflakes form and fall without melting. While temperatures may fall quickly above our heads, ground temperatures will try to stay above freezing, which could curb our chances at any snowflakes making it to the ground.
IF it gets cold enough to support snow, that cold air also has to line up with the leftover moisture from the storm system, which will be moving away to our east. Models are suggesting the colder air behind this system won’t last very long, which means a limited window of opportunity for it to turn rain into snow.
As always, we’ll keep a close eye on model guidance and bring you updates on the forecast as we make them!