Quiet weather means it stays cool and dry through Thanksgiving Day. Look for fair weather on Wednesday: highs in the 40s/lower 50s with some sunshine. Clouds thicken some on Thanksgiving Day, but any rain in Alabama stays well south of the Birmingham area nearer the Gulf Coast than the Tennessee Valley. Daytime highs still manage to get to the upper 50s on Thursday afternoon even with limited sunshine.
Black Friday: Wet Friday and weekend? That ‘quiet’ pattern ahead of Thanksgiving switches to a higher gear from Friday through next week. Two storm systems bring some healthy rainfall to the region Friday night into Saturday and again Sunday.
Early-morning ‘Black Friday’ shopping in the Huntsville-Decatur-Shoals areas looks dry: so do Nashville and Birmingham. In fact, our 50% chance of rain on Friday is for Friday NIGHT. That’s good news for shopping, but it’s bad news for high school football playoffs across Alabama and Tennessee. Rain overtakes both states between 6 PM and midnight, and it looks like a decent soaking: around 1/2” to 1” expected by 10 AM Saturday.
Rain moves out Saturday morning, it warms up some Saturday afternoon, and then more rain moves in on Sunday.
The timing on Sunday’s rain is a little more uncertain; however, it does appear to be a later-day or early-evening round with some locally-heavy thunderstorms. Severe weather seems unlikely at this point, but a system like this needs to be watched just in case the atmosphere gets more unstable than it looks from this distance.
Iron Bowl Weather: Uh oh. There’s a good chance of rain Saturday, so that must mean a soaker for the Iron Bowl, right? In the words of Lee Corso, ‘no so fast my friend!’
The maps may look scary for rain, but they tell you nothing about timing unless you take the time to look at them in context. Right now, we expect the rain to be over in Tuscaloosa early Saturday morning: probably before 9 AM.
So, as long as this system doesn’t slow down dramatically, we’ll be rain-free for the game. That amount of rain may make tailgating and parking muddy and difficult, though! Game temperatures start out around 60ºF and drop into the upper 50s.
Colder next week: Sunday’s rain and storms come just ahead of a strong cold front. Much colder air blows in behind that front plunging temperatures into the 40s/low-50s for highs and 20s/30s for overnight lows for most of next week.
Expect a more back-and-forth pattern with some pretty significant temperature swings starting late next week going into the first week of December.