November taps the brakes: fast-changing weather pattern slows down for now, but what about the long range?

November’s break-neck speed, fast-paced weather pattern finally puts on the brakes this weekend and next week. Consider this: thirty-nine days ago the high was 90ºF (October 7); Thursday afternoon’s highest temperature in Huntsville comes in at 34ºF: 57 degrees colder over 39 days.

Next week is ‘normal-ish’ November weather. A weak cool front brings some clouds in Monday, and while it might squeeze out some sprinkles or showers, no significant rain is expected.

After that, we get a gradual warming trend and a dry pattern through Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and next weekend. Daytime highs consistently hit in the 56ºF to 62ºF from next Wednesday to Sunday, and there is only a hint of a chance of rain around here next Saturday.

That means the weather for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa and the Egg Bowl in Oxford, Mississippi looks pretty good from where we stand now.

Is it ever going to snow again? Some are bummed that the snow missed Alabama (except for a dusting in spots); some are overjoyed that it missed us this time. It’s really too early to ‘expect’ snow in this part of the country. Huntsville averages about two ‘snow days’ per year, and more often than not they come in January: not November.
Snow-lovers, take heart. The weather pattern in December looks like it could turn awfully cold at times, and the wild swings back and forth can make for some wintry mischief at times.

Thursday’s early-morning CFS (Climate Forecast System) run shows potential for some very cold air in the middle of December: maybe as much as 10ºF to 15ºF below average.

CFS temperature anomaly in mid-December (image created Thursday, November 15, 2018)

We won’t ‘know’ until we get closer to that time, but that’s also the window in which the longer-range European guidance has a few ensemble members producing some southern snow.

All of those horizontal stripes indicate 1 single ‘member’ of the 50-member ensemble. It’s 50 different runs of the model on slight different initial conditions.

Some of those lines are eye-popping total accumulations that are somewhat unrealistic; some show practically nothing – which is the ‘safe bet.’  We shall see!

Looking for the forecast? It’s always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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