We’ve been here before, but it is not all that ‘common’ to be this warm this late in the year. Typically we would have already had several mornings in the 50s and several days that felt comfortably cool even in full sunshine. Not so much this year!
Eight of the warmest 25 starts to October have happened since 2005 (records for Huntsville). That statistic doesn’t explain much other than to say that the warmth can hold on longer than we like. We just ended the third-warmest September on record in Huntsville
Looking long-range, it’s highly unlikely that Alabama and Tennessee get a major, long-lasting cool down for at least 10 days. After that, there are signs of a pattern change toward cooler but not colder weather.
Hotter and drier: The ‘normal’ final 90-degree day of the season usually happens around September 15th. We see potential for at least 2 or 3 more 90-degree days in the next week before the heat begins to back down some by mid-month.
Expect daytime highs the 85-90 range all week with little to no chance of any significant, widespread rain through the upcoming weekend.
Weekend outlook: The first weekend of October would usually be mild and dry: highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s. This time, it’s looking like something out of late August: highs near 90, lows in the upper 60s, and a heat index close to 95ºF.
There’s no obvious threat of rain this weekend, so it’s looking mainly hot and dry for Saturday and Sunday.