This weekend gave us a small taste of fall with cooler mornings, but the fall-like air didn’t stick around for long! As we head into the work week, and the first week of October, we’ll see a return to a more summer-like weather pattern.
A large area of high pressure to the south will help pull in a southerly flow over the next few days, putting the Tennessee Valley right in the path of a moisture flow from the south.
This is where scattered showers and storms develop: right around the edge the high pressure. That leads us to some hit-or-miss storms Monday and Tuesday; we don’t expect widespread rainfall, but summer-like pop-ups that could drop brief downpours in the afternoons.
This will be just enough to keep temperatures in check, but we’ll still be seeing highs in the low 80s through the first half of the week. That’s warm compared to the average high for October 1st of 80°F, but still not what would be considered unusual.
By the middle of the week the area of high pressure to our south will drift north, closer to the Tennessee Valley. The closer this high pressure system is, the drier and hotter we’ll get.
Rain chances drop back down to around 10% from Wednesday into next weekend. That allows temperatures to soar back into the upper 80s to near 90°F for highs. That’s definitely unseasonably warm for the first week of October! We likely don’t reach record-breaking temperatures though; the record highs for October 1st-7th are in the mid 90s.
Unfortunately , real ‘cool, crisp, fall-like’ weather doesn’t look likely through the first half of October. The Climate Prediction Center has outlined a 70%-90% chance of above average temperatures through the second week of October and we see no signs that this pattern will break enough for a significant change.
We will see a gradual cool down, just as we naturally lose daylight throughout the fall season though. For now, we’ll just have to stay patient!