Hurricane Florence weaker Thursday evening, forecast to become a ‘major’ hurricane again

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic.  You can keep track Hurricane Florence and see the latest stats and forecast track with WHNT.com’s Interactive Radar or swipe over to the radar feature on Live Alert 19!

4 PM Thursday advisory, satellite imagery: Max winds at 80 MPH moving NW at 10 MPH

Florence won’t be near any land at all until at least Tuesday of next week when it could brush by Bermuda: most likely passing south of there.

Florence could be a threat to the US East Coast by the end of next week. A strong ridge over the western Atlantic likely steers the storm toward the the coast anywhere from the Carolinas north to New England. This could have some indirect effects on the weather here late next week drying it out and raising the temperature; we’ll keep an eye on it!

About the forecast models:  There are tons of social media pictures floating around and getting lots of attention for the catastrophe they show on the East Coast.  Don’t buy the hype of a model just yet; it very well could be a major problem from the Carolinas to New England, but we cannot see the details well enough now to know (1) where or if it will hit and (2) how strong it will be.

Here’s some of the guidance used to steer the forecast from the European and American-run ensembles (EPS and GEFS).  See notes below each picture:

So Florence, and Helene behind her, could both have US impacts. Neither looks to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7-10 days, but we’ll keep an eye on it as always!

Need some specifics about the weekend or next week? They’re always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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