We’ve termed this a ‘cold front-in-name-only.’ A very weak cool front moving north to south across the Tennessee Valley region Friday brought some spotty showers, some clouds, and an ever-so-slight change in air mass. It’s still hot outside, and it stays hot through the weekend.
Slightly drier air slipping in through Saturday: lowering the humidity, making it feel nicer in the morning and less sticky in the afternoons.
Needing some rain? We won’t be getting much at all until next week, and even then it’s looking rather spotty and uneven.
Delta Aquariids Meteor Shower: Late July is the nominal peak of the Delta Aquariid meteor shower and this year it comes with some good news and some bad news: a bright Moon may make it tough to see many of them!
Less humid for the weekend: Seventy-nine days. That’s how long it’s been since air this dry has managed to make it this far south. The sticky, thick tropical humidity that blew in and stuck around from mid-May to now has made it tough to be outside this summer, but we are getting a break from it this weekend.
Dewpoint is one of the best ways to identify how much moisture there really is in the air at a given time; a week ago, that number was around 79ºF making 90s feel like 105ºF plus. Behind our weak front, dewpoints drop as low as 55ºF to 60ºF for the first time since May 9th.
What does that mean to you? It means have your coffee outside in the fresh air Saturday morning, and if you need to cut grass, work outdoors, etc., Saturday will actually feel like a warm, dry day instead of a hot, cannot-escape-from-the-heat day. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90ºF with a light north wind and a fair sky.
Some clouds drift in Saturday night keeping temperatures in the middle-to-upper 60s, but it still feels pretty nice Sunday morning before getting a little hotter (90-93ºF) Sunday afternoon.
Rain chances on the rise: The short-lived dry spell comes to an end for a few of us by Sunday night, and the rest of us will see a small chance of rain Monday morning grow larger and larger until showers and some thunderstorms are likely by Tuesday.
An upper-air disturbance embedded in the jet stream slides overhead early in the week stirring up a good scattering of rain and storms; it’s possible some of that rain could come down very heavily in spots while others don’t get much at all.
The disturbance passes by Wednesday afternoon leaving us with a warm, humid air mass and only a few isolated daily hit-or-miss showers/storms late in the week.
So how much rain are we talking here? Remember that models don’t do a great job with highly-specific information seven to ten days out (or even 24-48 hours for that matter), but the outlook is good for as much as 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall from Monday through next Friday.