Tropical development possible in the Gulf and off the East Coast

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Tropical Storm Harvey developed last week in the Atlantic, fell apart in the Caribbean this past weekend, and is now redeveloping over the Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track for Harvey

The storm is now a tropical depression and will likely strengthen quickly over the next few days as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf. Tropical Depression Harvey could even become Hurricane Harvey as it approaches the coast of Texas by the end of the week.

The track of Harvey will determine how wet our weather in the Valley could get early next week. Harvey will help push in more tropical moisture, but for the next few days drier air from the north will keep us mainly dry.

Potential rainfall totals over the next 10 days

By this weekend Harvey will be moving over the southern coast of Texas near Corpus Christi, where the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch. Most model guidance keeps Harvey west of Alabama through the weekend before the remnants are pulled north/northeast late next week. That would still bring decent rain chances here in the Tennessee Valley as we see more tropical moisture thrown our way early next week, but the better chance for soaking rain is probably the later half of next week.

Another disturbance to watch: Meanwhile, just south of Florida another disturbance has the potential to develop. This tropical wave doesn’t have a great chance of developing soon, being that it’s so close to the Florida Peninsula. If it can stay together through this weekend it will move off the coast of central Florida, where it would stand a better chance of development.

If this system develops off the East Coast it could help filter drier air from the north into the Tennessee Valley due to the counterclockwise flow around areas of low pressure. This system likely won’t be strong enough to make much of a difference on the weather here in the though. Heavy rain is expected across the southern and eastern coast of Florida through this weekend before the system moves northeast out to sea.