Warning improvements: NOAA’s “Warn On Forecast” may double lead time
Thirteen minutes: that’s the current “lead time” (the advance notice of an impactful severe weather event) on most Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings.
What if you could have as much as one-hour’s notice?
It’s in the works! The National Severe Storms Laboratory developed a high-resolution, short-term program called “Warn On Forecast” that could provide valuable minutes for you to get yourself and your family to safety.
Warn-on-Forecast researchers work to combine high-resolution surface, satellite, and radar data into an optimal set of analyses to initialize ultra-high-resolution surface, satellite, and radar data into an optimal set of analyses to initialize ultra-high resolution computer models that will predict specific weather hazards 30-60 minutes before they form. is advanced modeling system will predict probabilities of a hazard occurring, the con dence in the path, and adjust to trends in the threat level based on new weather observations, and rapid and adaptive radar scanning capabilities.
See examples (including on from April 27, 2011) of how this will make a big impact on NSSL’s Warn On Forecast Fact Sheet.