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Valleywx.com: Thoughts On Long-Term Forecast

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Occasionally we like to go a little beyond the simple Seven Day Forecast and look at some of our longer-range ideas.

The over-all weather pattern is going to go through a little bit of change in the next two weeks, and considering how hot and dry it’s been, most folks have told me that any change is good!

As of today’s climate report, Huntsville had a rainfall deficit of 7.03″ on the year; Muscle Shoals’ deficit of 9.53″ is one of the largest in the state. From June 23rd to today, Huntsville’s average high temperature is 101º F. That average is 103º F for Muscle Shoals in that same period.

Next week’s weather map will look much different than this week’s. The big ridges that have kept it hot and dry here since mid-June will not be as big a factor; in fact, one large ridge over the Central and East will split this weekend. Two smaller, weaker ridges will emerge as that happens; one slips west over the Rockies, and the other moves out over the Atlantic. Between now and then, the ridge will be the biggest factor deciding who gets rain and who doesn’t. Note the rain-free area in the middle of the country in the picture below; more rain is likely with numerous scattered storms on the edges of the hot, dry air called the “Ring of Fire” (not the same one you’re thinking about in plate tectonics):

Read more about this discussion on our weather blog, Valleywx.com.