Tuesday Night, May 24, 2016
Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson
Some passing clouds, hot weather, and no substantial rain
Big rain northwest of the Tennessee Valley Tuesday afternoon fizzles as it moves southeast; a sprinkle or light shower is not out of the question in northwestern Alabama and Tennessee, but measurable rain is unlikely overnight. Clouds drift over from time to time on Wednesday, but that won’t be enough to cool us down much; we build on the hot, dry weather of late and make a run at 90ºF by mid-afternoon Wednesday.
The official start of Summer on the calendar is still 27 days away; the solstice occurs on June 20th at 5:34 PM, but the weather is already feeling like the summer season. Ten of the past eleven days have featured below-average temperatures, but it looks like as many or more days of the near future will be well above the seasonal average because of a hot, dry pattern setting up over the south.
Some parts of the country get soaked over the next week, but it stays generally dry with only a few hit-or-miss showers and storms around here through the next seven days.
Memorial Day Weekend: With very little chance of rain in our near future, the focus is clearly on the heat. Most model guidance points toward many days near or above 90ºF through the first part of June; however, a few scattered storms around may change that for a community here or there on Friday and Saturday in particular.
The chance of rain goes up to 30% on both Friday and Saturday, and daytime highs drop back into the middle and upper 80s.
Showers and storms thin out again for Sunday and Monday leading to some very hot weather by late May/early June standards. Expect daytime highs up into the 91-96ºF range by Monday afternoon.
Tropical development soon: It’s not a guarantee, but an area of disturbed weather off the East Coast could bring the second named storm of the year within the next five days: Tropical Build-Up on the Valleywx blog.
A hot weather reminder: The projected heat for the next seven to ten days is not record-setting or unprecedented, but it is something we haven’t dealt with this year so far. In fact, the last time we had a 90-degree day was back on October 7, 2015. It doesn’t take record heat to be dangerous to children: Kids in Hot Cars on the Valleywx blog.
Any signs of a cool-down? Once the heat cranks up, it looks like it will be on for the season. Some tropical moisture moving in from the east by the middle of next week may suppress the temperature a little while it increases our chance for some hit-or-miss storms; however, neither widespread rain nor any refreshingly cool air come south again anytime soon.
Tennessee Valley Forecast:
TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy. Not as cool. Low: 63. Wind: Light South.
WEDNESDAY: Hot and more humid. Partly cloudy. High: 90. Wind: SSW 7-14.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and warm. Muggy with some patchy, low-lying fog. Low: 65. Wind: Light South.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid with a small chance of some pop-up afternoon showers or storms. Rain coverage will be very limited. High: 89. wind: S 10-15. Rain: 20%.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Isolated evening showers diminishing after sunset. Partly cloudy and muggy overnight. Patchy fog possible. Low: 67. Wind: S 2-7. Rain: Less than 10%.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Scattered showers and storms possible mainly in the afternoon. A few good downpours while many communities still see no rain at all. High: 87. Wind: SE 6-12. Rain: 30%.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. More early summertime-like weather with a few scattered showers or storms around during the heat of the day. High: 88. Wind: SE 5-10. Rain: 30%.
SUNDAY: Sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Some isolated showers/storms possible. High: 90. Wind: S 5-10. Rain: 10%.
MONDAY: Hot and humid. A small chance of an isolated shower or storm. Heat index around 95ºF. High: 93. Wind: SE 5-10. Rain: 10%.
TUESDAY: Fair, hot and humid. A few spotty showers or storms possible. High: 91. Wind: NE 5-10. Rain: 10%.
WEDNESDAY: A weak cool front brings a better chance of some showers and storms and a little break from the heat. High: 87. Wind: N 5-10. Rain: 30%.
THURSDAY: Spotty afternoon and evening showers/storms. Hot and humid. High: 88. Wind: N 5-10. Rain: 20%.