Tuesday Morning, August 4, 2015
Meteorologist Jake Reed/Meteorologist Ben Smith
Afternoon highs remain well above average early this week
It’s a muggy start in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures aren’t as cool as Monday morning. Readings at the bus stop range from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Heat and humidity continue to build this afternoon: expect scattered afternoon clouds and possibly a stray shower– the risk is very small. Afternoon highs will get awfully close to 100 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon before better rain chances and added cloud cover bring temperatures down closer to average for a few days.
The next rain chance
With afternoon temperatures getting up close to 100 this afternoon and increased moisture, we can’t guarantee a totally rain-free afternoon, but the odds of getting a shower today are very small. It’s not until Wednesday that upper-level features become more supportive of scattered storms in the afternoon and evening. We’ll keep the rain chance fairly low Wednesday as well, but between Wednesday night and Friday evening, at least one round of heavy storms appears likely. With high pressure anchored to our west, subtle disturbances passing overhead will offer up decent odds of rain, but timing these features out is very difficult more than 24 hours in advance.
Forecast guidance has been consistent in showing better coverage of rain and storms around on Thursday and Friday, especially in the afternoon and evening. A batch of rain and storms early Friday morning also appears possible. Right now, the rain chances Thursday and Friday are in the 40 to 50 percent range, but check back as forecast adjustments are inevitable.
Don’t get excited just yet about cooler August weather
Despite a few model runs trying their best to bring in cooler, drier air later this week, the overall consensus seems to be shifting away from that idea. With added clouds and rain, we may get one or two days– most likely Friday and Saturday– where the temperature drops closer to average (near 90) for this time of year. Beyond Saturday, multiple longer-range guidance tools suggest a return to hot August weather– possibly even temperatures jumping back well above average.
Severe flooding near Tampa, Florida prompts dozens of evacuations, road closures
Although the chances of an area of low pressure crossing the Florida peninsula becoming a tropical system are low, deep moisture has produced tremendous rains near and north of Tampa. Monday, 40 people were evacuated from a mobile home park and more than 40 roads were closed by the City of Tampa. Read more.
TODAY: Very hot and more humid with scattered afternoon clouds. A stray is downpour is possible, but not very likely. Heat index near 100 degrees. High: 98. Wind: NW 5. Rain: 20%.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and muggy. Low: 73. Winds: Light.
WEDNESDAY: Very hot and humid with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms possible. Heat index near 100 degrees. High: 96. Wind: Light. Rain: 30%.
THURSDAY: Areas of rain and storms developing, especially in the late morning and afternoon. High: 93. Wind: SW 5-15. Rain: 40%.
FRIDAY: Scattered rain and storms possible during the morning and again in the afternoon and evening; not as hot. High: 90. Wind: SW 10-17. Rain: 50%.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and not as hot. Scattered showers and storms possible early in the morning. High: 91. Wind: NNW 7-14. Rain: 30%.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and hot with comfortable humidity levels. High: 93. Wind: N 5-10. Rain: 10%.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and very hot. High: 96. Wind: Light. Rain: 10%.