Wednesday Afternoon, April 1, 2015
Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson
Spotty storms Thursday, severe weather possible on Good Friday
A few isolated showers and storms are possible this evening as a weak warm front moves north across the Tennessee Valley. The air behind that front makes it more humid tonight, and temperatures only drop to the upper 50s and lower 60s by sunrise under a mostly cloudy sky.
More spotty showers and a few thunderstorms develop Thursday, but our best chance of widespread heavy rain and stormy weather comes on Good Friday. A strong cold front brings a threat of strong and severe storms by Friday afternoon and evening, but the rest of the Easter Weekend looks rather quiet.
Good Friday Storms: The Storm Prediction Center posted a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for Friday in the Tennessee Valley region. We expect a fairly intense squall line (line of storms) to develop across Tennessee and Arkansas by midday Friday, and that line moves into Alabama in the afternoon and evening.
Storms may begin in The Shoals as noon to 2 PM, in Huntsville after 4 PM, and near Sand Mountain as late as 6-8 PM. The primary threats will be strong wind and hail; however, there is a chance some storms could rotate and produce a tornado threat. We will need to watch the situation closely on Friday afternoon and evening.
Saturday and Easter Sunday: Colder, drier air follows Friday’s stormy weather, and Saturday looks like a sunny, cool early April day. Expect highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s with a stiff north breeze. Some patchy frost is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning as temperatures fall to the mid-30s.
Sunrise services will be chilly! Look for a clear sky, a light wind, and a definite chill early Sunday morning. Sunrise time on Sunday morning in Huntsville is 6:28 AM; it’s 6:25 AM in Fort Payne, and 6:35 AM in Waterloo.
Sunday afternoon looks good: partly sunny and milder, temperatures in the upper 60s by mid-afternoon. Clouds increase Sunday night, and while there is a chance of some light rain after 9 PM, we will keep the forecast for Easter Sunday “dry” for now.
More April Showers (and storms): A typically-unsettled springtime weather pattern develops next week with a series of disturbances working on warm, humid air to create several waves of thunderstorms. The first round of “likely” rainy, stormy weather comes Monday, but the rain thins out some for Tuesday. More scattered, occasionally heavy storms are possible from Wednesday through Friday. In all, some spots may see as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain by next weekend (cumulative – not all at once).
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Milder with a few isolated evening showers/storms. Low: 60. Wind: SE 3-9. Rain: 20%.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny and warm. Scattered showers and a few storms possible. The best chance of rain Thursday is early in the day west of I-65; however, showers are possible at almost any time throughout the day. High: 80. Wind: SW 12-25. Rain: 30%.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Isolated showers possible. Warm and humid. Low: 63. Wind: SSW 6-12. Rain: 10%.
GOOD FRIDAY: Breezy and warm. Showers possible early, but the best chance of rain comes Friday afternoon and evening. Some storms could be severe in that time frame; primary threat looks to be hail and damaging winds. High: 79. Wind: SW 15-25. Rain: 80%.
SATURDAY: Clouds moving out early in the day; becoming mostly sunny. Cool and dry. Breezy at times. High: 60. Wind: N 10-15.
EASTER SUNDAY: Chilly for sunrise services! Temperatures start out in the upper 30s but warm to the mid-60s. Partly to mostly sunny. High: 68. Wind: SE 6-12.
MONDAY: Scattered showers in the morning, a few thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Some locally heavy rain possible. Warmer, more humid. High: 70. Wind: S 6-12. Rain: 60%.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, a few storms possible. Storms not as numerous as Monday. High: 71. Wind: SSW 7-14. Rain: 30%.
WEDNESDAY: Rain and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Some locally heavy rain is possible. Drying out in the afternoon and evening. High: 69. Wind: SW 6-12 shifting NW 10-15. Rain: 50%.