Saturday Evening, April 18, 2015

Widespread soaking rain will continue across the Tennessee Valley through the early morning hours before winding down after 7 a.m. Expect muggy, breezy conditions later this morning into the early afternoon. We anticipate a lull in the rain and storm activity through the late morning hours into the afternoon, but daytime heating will lead to isolated strong storms generally after 2 p.m.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps the Tennessee Valley outlined in a slight risk of severe weather through early Monday morning. Severe storms will develop west of the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon and evening over Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana. As they move toward us after dark, we expect a gradual weakening trend, but we’ll have to watch areas west of I-65 for any storm that can maintain its strength.

Sunday’s Severe Weather Threat: The overnight showers taper through Sunday morning, leaving us mostly dry by early Sunday afternoon.  Most of the second half of the day will just be warm and breezy with a limited chance for storms; however, any storms that manage to develop during the heat of the day could produce heavy rain, hail, and bursts of wind.  We’ll be monitoring radar trends very closely.

Meanwhile, another wave of heavy storms is expected to affect most of Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi with some severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening as they make their way east toward the Valley. They’ll be arriving here late-Sunday evening and could also bring a threat for severe-level winds and hail, but there’s still some question about how well they’ll hold together and what actual impacts they’ll have around this area.

The most likely hazards for Sunday afternoon and evening are strong winds and hail, but brief tornadoes can never be ruled out with dynamic systems like this.

Cooler, drier air soon: Showers end early Monday morning as a cold front passes, and a drier, more comfortable air mass moves into the region. Expect crisp, cool nights and pleasant afternoons early next week. Low temperatures dip into the mid-40s on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Longe-range signals point to an overall cooler weather pattern for the next two weeks.

SUNDAY: Widespread morning rain. Isolated strong storms possible during the afternoon and again after dark. High: 78. Wind: SSW 10-15. Rain: 70%.

MONDAY: A few light showers continue through the morning. Drier, mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 72. Wind: WNW 7-14. Rain: 20%.

TUESDAY: Cool start to the day. Plentiful sunshine returns. High: 71. Wind: N 6-12.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. An isolated shower possible late in the day. High: 75. Wind: E 5-10. Rain: 20%.

THURSDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible in the afternoon and evening. High: 74. Wind: SE 6-12. Rain: 20%.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered showers possible throughout the day. High: 73. Wind: SW 10-15. Rain: 20%.

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