Monday Night, April 27, 2015
Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson
Scattered showers, cool temperatures, and we finally get a dry weekend!
More heavy rain and strong thunderstorms are likely near the Gulf Coast this week, but the Tennessee Valley skates out of April with no more big storm threats. We do see a chance of some scattered showers at times from Tuesday afternoon and evening through early Wednesday.
The storm system that produced significant severe weather and some tornadoes from Texas to Louisiana Monday (like this one in New Orleans that knocked over a moving train) is moving east. Around here, that just means rain; however, if you are headed south through the middle of the week, keep in mind it could be rather stormy from New Orleans around the coast to Tampa on Tuesday and Wednesday.
April showers: Huntsville recorded at least a trace of rainfall on twelve of the past seventeen days; we have 6.70” for the month, and that puts us almost 1.5” above normal for the year. It also means if we can muster another 0.76” of rain between now and Thursday that this will be the tenth-wettest April on record.
That is certainly possible given that we have some scattered showers in the forecast through midweek. The latest precipitation forecast guidance from NOAA’s WPC shows around 0.50” to 1.00” of rainfall between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. Localized amounts may vary quite a bit, but we get at least one more good soaking before it dries out and warms up some. That NOAA forecast might be a little on the high side; we expect most spots will get closer to 0.25″ to 0.50″ with a few isolated spots getting up to that inch mark.
Cooler to warmer again late week: A quick shot of cool, dry air blows in on Wednesday night, and low temperatures plunge into the 40s on Thursday morning. It only warms to the mid-60s with a chilly north wind and some sunshine Thursday, and Thursday night temperatures drop all the way to the lower 40s in Huntsville.
The record low at HSV for May 1 (Friday) is 34ºF (1908); we won’t come near that in the city, but a few spots will be in the upper 30s by sunrise Friday. Those “cold spots” like Winchester, Valley Head, and Russellville could challenge their own records and potentially have a little patchy frost.
Weekend Outlook: May begins on Friday, and the weather finally starts behaving like Spring! It will be much warmer and should stay dry through the weekend. Expect daytime highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with a lot of sunshine; it still gets cool at night, but it won’t be extreme for this time of year. The next shot at some rain comes from a rather weak, disorganized system starting late Monday into Tuesday of next week.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Dry with a light breeze. Low: 49. Wind: ENE 5-10.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler than normal for late April. Scattered showers show up on radar south of US 72 in the morning, but more widespread showers begin after 2 PM. High: 69. Wind: ESE 6-12. Rain: 50%.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder. A few heavier downpours could produce up to an inch of rain in isolated spots; most get around 0.25″ to 0.50.” Cool and damp. Low: 51. Wind: ENE 6-12. Rain: 70%.
WEDNESDAY: Showers likely early. Clouds slow to clear, staying chilly. High: 65. Wind: NE 6-12. Rain: 40%.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy, a cool breeze. Temperatures about 10 degrees below normal for April 30th. High: 67. Wind: N 10-15.
FRIDAY: Chilly in the morning, warming up some in the afternoon with a sunny sky. High: 72. Wind: NE 5-10.
SATURDAY: Sunny and warmer after a crisp, cool morning. A quiet start to the weekend! High: 77. Wind: SW 5-10.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and warm. More seasonable for early May. High: 80. Wind: SW 5-10.
MONDAY: Clouds and sunshine. Increasing humidity and a small chance of some showers. Warm. High: 82. Wind: S 6-12. Rain: 10%.