Tuesday Night, July 26, 2016
Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson
How much rain do you need? There’s a good chance you’ll get a soaking soon
Any isolated showers leftover after midnight fade quickly leaving us partly cloudy and quiet overnight.
A little patchy fog is possible by daybreak with temperatures only falling into the mid-70s.
Wednesday starts out warm and humid, but a better chance of afternoon showers and storms keeps the excessive heat down a little: low-90s between 1 and 4 PM.
Your best shot at a shower or thunderstorm comes from around noon to 6 PM; however, a few leftover downpours may linger as late as midnight in the 50-60% areas on the map below:
The chance of rain improves for the rest of the week! Several waves of showers and locally-heavy thunderstorms pass over North Alabama and Tennessee through the weekend. While individual storms can do a lot more than one inch of rain, we do expect most communities in and near the Tennessee Valley to pick up as much as 0.75” to 1.50” of rain on average through Sunday.
How do we get this rain? Up front, this is not a 100% chance of an everybody-gets-soaked kind of rain. We expect daily coverage of showers and storms to be about as high as it has been all summer long from Wednesday to next Monday.
In that time-frame, there is a very good chance that most communities around here see at least 0.75” of rain from at least one single thunderstorm. If you end up getting multiple storms, your total could be much higher.
Weekend washout? No. We don’t expect it to rain all weekend; however, weak upper-air disturbances may kick off 2-3 waves of showers with some embedded heavier thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening and again on Sunday afternoon/evening.
Nineties streak in jeopardy: Tuesday marks the twenty-first consecutive day of 90-degree heat for Huntsville. The average high during the past three weeks? Ninety-five degrees!
The timing of showers and storms has a lot to do with whether or not the streak lasts past Wednesday. Our forecast highs of 89ºF on Thursday and Friday are close enough that we could still top out at or above 90ºF if rain holds off until 3-4 PM or later.
The brief period of “less heat” ends early next week as it gets hotter and drier again for the first week of August. August is usually the second-driest month of the year, so every drop will count through the weekend!
Tennessee Valley Forecast:
TONIGHT: Warm and muggy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low: 77. Wind: Light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Scattered storms becoming more numerous, but rainfall is still very uneven. Isolated 1-2” rainfall totals possible in afternoon/evening storms. High: 92. Heat Index: 100ºF. Rain: 40%. Wind: SSW 6-12.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Showers, thunder possible through midnight. Low: 73. Wind: SW 6-12. Rain: 30%.
THURSDAY: More clouds than sun but still hot and humid! Showers and storms widespread in the afternoon and evening. Several large areas of 0.50” to 1.00” rainfall in scattered storms. High: 89. Wind: SW 10-17. Rain: 60%.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers, thunder possible through midnight. Low: 70. Wind: SW 5-10. Rain: 10%.
FRIDAY: Rain and storms covering a large part of North Alabama and Tennessee in the afternoon and evening. Locally-heavy downpours may bring more than 1-2” of rain in spots. High: 89. Wind: SW 7-14. Rain: 50%.
SATURDAY: Numerous showers and storms, some with gusty winds and heavy rain in the afternoon and evening. High: 90. Wind: WSW 5-10. Rain: 50%.
SUNDAY: Typical mid-summer heat with a chance of some hit-or-miss showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and evening. High: 92. Wind: SW 5-10. Rain: 40%.
MONDAY: Showers and storms possible mainly in the afternoon and evening. Hot and humid. Feeling more like the upper 90s. High: 93. Wind: SW 5-10. Rain: 40%.
TUESDAY: A slim chance of any showers or storms in the area. Much hotter with a “feels like” temp at or above 100ºF. High: 94. Wind: NE 3-9. Rain: 20%.
WEDNESDAY: Very hot and humid. Feels like temps above 100ºF. Little if any hope for a few spotty showers or storms. High: 97. Wind: W 5-10.
THURSDAY: Excessively hot again. Heat index 105ºF+ with little/no chance of showers and storms. High: 98. Wind: WSW 5-10.