Unsettled tropical weather dumping rain over Florida

It’s the season for college graduation celebrations as well as late spring/early summer vacation travel plans.

If you’re jetting off to Florida for a trip to the theme parks — or just a few relaxing days at the beach — you may want to pack the umbrella and rain parkas and leave the sunglasses at home.

The National Hurricane Center has outlined a broad area of unsettled weather just to the west of Florida, courtesy of an upper level low pressure system that is swirling off the coast of the Sunshine State. This low will generate gusty winds as well as heavy rain as it moves north towards the Florida panhandle.

There is a small chance that this area of unsettled weather will organize into a tropical cyclone or sub-tropical cyclone over the next several days.

What is the difference between the two? True tropical cyclones have a closed center of circulation, which indicates that the system is becoming more organize (a sign of strengthening within the overall storm). Tropical disturbances have open areas of circulation, known as a “wave” or “trough”.

Regardless, the impact would be the same whether it organizes or not: Gusty winds and heavy rain will impact Florida, Georgia, and much of Alabama as well as southern middle Tennessee.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Brennan