February’s unusual warmth means more rain and some heavy storms soon

It may feel stormy outside, but we don’t see a major threat of ‘severe’ storms this week. A slow-moving, relatively weak storm system drags a cold front into the region and leaves it sitting here for a few days from Wednesday to Friday. In that period, as much as 1” to 3” of rain are possible; that could lead to some flooding, but the ingredients for significant severe weather look to be minimal at best.

Might there be a few storms? Sure. Is there a zero chance of severe weather? No, there’s not a visible threat right now, but we will keep our eyes peeled.

Track rain and any storm threats with WHNT.com’s Interactive Radar or swipe over to the radar feature on Live Alert 19!

Floating away in February: February 2018 has been wet, but it’s only the 46th-wettest thus far; with nine days to go, we still look for another 1” to 3” of total rainfall this week and potentially another one or two on top of that before the month ends. Exactly two inches would move us into 20th place; three inches would get us close to the top ten in Huntsville and all the way up to 9th place in Muscle Shoals.

Huntsville has 5.09” so far; Muscle Shoals has a whopping 6.65” on the month already.

Looking forward to the weekend: Rain moves out Friday leaving us warm and dry for a little while. Friday afternoon and evening look mostly dry; Saturday morning looks mostly dry. Some rain and thunderstorms look likely between roughly 6 PM Saturday and 6 AM Sunday, and there may be a few strong storms in the mix as well.

The type of storm we get depends heavily on small-scale factors that are too far away to see with any real clarity; however, some of the analogs (similar events in the past compared to the modeled forecast maps) are of fairly substantial February severe weather events from the past decade.

That window will tighten up as we get a better handle on the timing this week, so be sure you’re up-to-date and check in with us often over the next several days.

Behind those storms, it gets a little cooler, but our next shot of ‘cold’ weather won’t come until early March.

Need more specific info about the forecast? It’s always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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