Short-term weather stays damp and mild: lows tonight in the 50s under a cloudy sky with some dense fog. That foggy, cloudy, damp weather lingers through Thursday: especially over northeastern Alabama. Temperatures end up ranging from the mid-60s in The Shoals to the upper 40s on Lookout Mountain Thursday afternoon.
Another round of rain and storms: A strong storm system dragging a cold front into Alabama and Tennessee Friday night brings another round of heavy rain and a chance of a few strong thunderstorms.
Excessively heavy rain develops over Mississippi and western/middle Tennessee Friday and Friday night; the band of rain and storms drops slowly southeast across North Alabama late Friday night through Saturday morning.
The threat level is low for now mainly because the stronger dynamics (wind shear, lift) are not quite matched up with the fuel needed to keep powerful thunderstorms going. This set-up is similar to the one that brought tornadoes and high winds to North Alabama in November. It’s probably not exactly the same result, but we will be here watching it keeping you posted!
White Christmas? The odds of a ‘White Christmas’ in North Alabama on any given Christmas Day are only about FIVE percent. We’ve had a few over the years: 1989 and 2010 with some of the best around-Christmas snows on record.
Over the past few days we’ve seen a steady trend in model guidance away from snow on Christmas Eve: less extremely cold air, a less-dynamic jet stream, and next-to-no moisture available for snow or rain. We’ll maintain a chance of some flurries over Northeast Alabama Christmas Eve, but we expect no accumulation of snow for the big day.
It will get colder, though! Temperatures drop to the 30s and 40s for highs from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day (Monday) and Tuesday. Next week has another rollercoaster-ish look to it: ups, downs and a few shots of rain.
If you’re hoping for snow, there’s still some potential out there between Christmas and New Year’s Day. It’s just not a very ‘good’ chance at this point!