Showers, clouds and fog kept it damp and cool all morning, but warmer and more humid air blowing north tonight sets the stage for some heavy rainfall and a threat of a few strong thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center outlines part of North and Central Alabama with a ‘Marginal’ Risk of severe weather: the lowest on the five-tiered scale. There is a chance it might get upgraded to a ‘Slight’ Risk; however, that’s a statistical change instead of a change in real weather expectations.
The Bottom Line: It’s going to rain a LOT tonight. Flash flooding is possible, but it’s not extremely likely because it’s been so dry over the past six weeks. Our risk of severe weather in North Alabama depends heavily on how much of that soupy, warm air can get north of Interstate 20 overnight.
The risk seems higher south of US 278, but we’ll monitor it through Wednesday morning to see precisely where that boundary sets up.
Timing? The rain begins in earnest this evening by sunset and lasts through the night into Wednesday morning. We don’t expect any severe weather before 3 AM Wednesday. After 3 AM through about 10 AM Wednesday, the atmosphere will be right for a threat of some strong storms that could produce strong winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes.