Three polls on eve of Alabama Senate vote find a big Jones win, a big Moore win, and a toss-up

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HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — Two polls released on the eve of Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate offer strikingly different views on what voters are likely to do Tuesday.

A Fox News poll released Monday morning found Democrat Doug Jones leading Republican Roy Moore by 10 points among likely voters, 50 percent to 40 percent, with 2 percent favoring a write-in and 8 percent undecided.

On the other hand, an Emerson College poll released Monday found Moore with a 9 point lead over Jones, 53 percent to 44 percent. That result shows Moore with a 4 point jump over survey results last week.

Jones maintained the same 50 percent of the vote in the Fox News poll that it showed last month among likely voters. That poll came out a few days after sexual misconduct allegations against Moore were first raised. The Fox poll found Moore actually lost 2 points, from 42 percent in mid-November to 40 percent today.

The Fox News poll also found interest in the race was high among voters who identified as “white evangelicals,” “Trump voters,” or “Clinton voters.” The poll found 73 percent of evangelicals were either “extremely” or “very” – interested in the race; the same was true for 72 percent of Trump voters and 78 percent of Clinton voters.

The Fox News poll found Jones’ lead was narrower among registered voters – rather than likely voters – with Jones at 45 percent and Moore at 39 percent. The poll found Moore has not improved beyond 42 percent of the vote from registered voters or likely voters since October.

Last week, an Emerson poll found Jones with his strongest showing yet, at 46 percent, and Moore with his worst showing in the four polls Emerson has taken since Nov. 12. Last week’s poll found Moore at 49 percent, but today’s report gives him 53 percent of the likely vote. Jones lost 2 points in the latest poll and a possible write-in campaign fell 1 point from 5 percent to 4 percent of the vote.

The Emerson poll found President Donald Trump had a higher favorable rating than either Senate candidate: Trump’s favorable rating was 55 percent, compared to 45 percent for Moore and 43 percent for Jones. Trump’s unfavorable rating was 40 percent, with Moore and Jones both getting a 45 percent unfavorable rating.

And, a Monmouth University poll released Monday finds that the race is a toss-up, with voter turnout the deciding factor.  The poll found that if Democratic voters turn out in larger than typical numbers for an off-year election, Jones has a chance. The poll found if turnout is lower, more in line with traditional mid-year elections, Moore’s chances of winning grows.