Cooler air now, colder air arrives later

Colder air blows in, some lingering showers last through Wednesday

The cold front passed Huntsville just after noon Tuesday, but the ‘cooler’ air has been slow to move into the region. It does get colder later tonight; temperatures drop to the 50s by 10 PM and slowly head for the upper 40s by daybreak.

Some spotty showers remain possible tonight and Wednesday morning; that means another shot at some rain at the bus stop and for the morning commute. Most of Wednesday just looks gray, damp and cool; a chilly north breeze makes mid-50s feel a little cold! More showers are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then it dries out (and stays cooler than average) for a few days.

Weather pattern flip-flop November started very warm: a little more than 12ºF above average! The colder air blowing in does not flip us to 12ºF below average, but it will be getting cooler for the foreseeable future.

Average highs drop from 67ºF to 64ºF over the next seven days; our forecast highs stay well below that through the first part of next week. Over-all, temperatures trend about 3ºF to 6ºF below average through next Tuesday.

We see a slight warm-up (not like the past few days, though) late next week, but most of our longer-range guidance is keying on a much colder set-up starting around November 20th: the week of Thanksgiving.

How about the longer-range stuff?  If you recall, we talked about expecting a relatively ‘cold’ November last month.  This first seven days has really made that idea look silly; the favored cold air is down nearly 12 points (we’re 12ºF above average), but there are three quarters left to play!

This pattern flip-flop described above becomes a more stable colder pattern for the rest of the month.  It may only be getting ‘cool’ right now, but we see a substantially colder pattern setting up around November 20th (the week of Thanksgiving).

The first surge of ‘very’ cold air around November 20th (850mb temps)

This air comes straight from the Arctic: temperatures as much as 10ºF to 15ºF below average!

So, the first quarter of the month got out of hand with the warmth, but the colder weather – the heavy favorite – ends up winning the day before November is over. Low temperatures could drop as far as the mid-20s with highs as cold as the 30s and lower 40s between the 20th and 30th.

By the way, November is part of the secondary tornado season in the Tennessee Valley. A weather pattern like this does not favor a lot of severe weather; however, it can happen even when the weather pattern doesn’t show a strong signal days in advance.

We’ll keep you posted on any threats that may develop; understand that in this particular pattern we might not get more than a 24-48 hour ‘heads-up’ on a stormy situation!

Need some specifics about the weekend or next week? They’re always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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