When will it get cold again?

Highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s, thick humidity, and a daily chance of showers and storms.

That sounds like something you’d hear more of in September or October: not November!  True to form this year, no month wants to behave and conform itself to the season in which it falls.  October wanted to be August then January.  Now November is striving for late summer/early fall.

What gives?

It’s all a part of the seasonal ebb and flow.

This warm ‘intrusion’ into our trend toward colder weather won’t last forever; in fact, it likely only has about 6 to 7 more days before we get a lot cooler (if not significantly colder).

The next five days look awfully warm for this time of year; the average temperature in the +10ºF to +15ºF range.

Just beyond that – out around November 9th and 10th – there’s likely to be a shift.  It’s already hinted at by longer-range guidance, but it’s not ‘locked in’ just yet.

Both the European EPS and the American GEFS ensemble guidance show a jet stream dipping farther and farther south after November 10th, but the ‘control’ run of today’s EPS will knock your socks off if you’re looking for some cold weather!  (Warning: if you’re not capable of seeing the difference between a model discussion and a forecast for a specific type of weather, stop reading now…if you continue on, don’t @ me.)

EPS control 850 mb temperature anomaly on Saturday, Nov. 11

That’s seriously cold air.

Is it for real though? Well, an 850 millibar temperature of -8.5ºC would typically yield a daytime high in Huntsville (with sunshine on a dry day with a breeze) of about 30ºF to 40ºF. That’s only happened 32 times in Huntsville’s recorded history in the month of November, so it would be a rather rare event for sure!

It probably won’t be to that severity, but there’s a very good chance that we’ll see a trend toward colder and colder weather in model guidance just over the next hill (late next week).

Could air that cold mean an early-season snow?

Another version of the ‘control’ from Wednesday night says maybe. I say probably not, but if we managed to get that extremely cold air down here, then it’s a whole new ballgame. This is an interesting look for November; I’ll give it that!  Before you get too excited though, this product often way over-does snowfall – especially in the South.

EPS weeklies 46-day snow accumulation (if it were 100% correct, this would be how much snow falls over the next 46 days)

That playground is still too far away to see for sure; but the sure bet here in the short-term is warm with a chance of showers.

Need some specifics about the weekend or next week? They’re always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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