Tropical Depression Sixteen develops Wednesday morning

A tropical wave that we’ve been watching for the past several days has now developed into Tropical Depression Sixteen. The storm is currently off the coast of Nicaragua moving north.

The system is expected to continue strengthening, likely becoming Tropical Storm Nate by Wednesday night.

The National Hurricane Center’s current track takes the storm north, passing by (or over) the Yucatan Peninsula before heading for the Gulf Coast. There is a chance that this tropical depression could become a hurricane as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current track has the storm passing to the east of the Tennessee Valley. We’re likely to see wet and breezy conditions early next week. However, if the track shifts to the west of the Tennessee Valley we could be talking about heavy rain and even a risk of severe weather.

We’ll continue to update you on the latest as the storm develops.

The latest information from the National Weather Service is below:

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

…NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the
Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the
border with Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.