Dry Days Ahead: cool nights, warm days, and precious little hope for rain

Cool nights, warm days, and precious little rain in our near future

The crisp, cool weather you might be hoping for is not happening yet, but at least it’s not as torrid and uncomfortable now with drier air in place.  Look for a clear sky, a light breeze, and cooler weather overnight: lows in the 50s to near 60ºF.

Working for the weekend!  Got plans to be outdoors this weekend?  It looks fantastic for the Athens Grease Festival in Downtown Athens Saturday from 11 am to 7 pm features temperatures between 75ºF and 82ºF most of the day, full sun, and a northeast wind up to 20 miles per hour (hang on to your toga).  Eva Frontier Days looks similar: warm and dry with a mostly sunny sky.

You might need a dust mask to keep your allergies in check this weekend. The pollen count is in the medium to high range (ragweed, elm and sagebrush being the primary offenders), and it is dusty.

The breeze, the sun, and the dry air keep drying things out even more over the weekend, so expect the dusty, allergy-producing weather to stay about the same through both Saturday and Sunday. Expect lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 80s: slightly warmer than normal for the end of September and start of October.

Prospects for rain anytime soon?  The slim-to-no chance of rain we had in the forecast for most of next week is getting even lower.  We’ve dropped the 10% chance for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday; while a few showers might develop, there’s no expectation of organized, widespread, significant rainfall through at least the middle of next week.

We’ll end September Saturday with only 2.71″ of rain at Huntsville International Airport: 1.01″ below average.  The final 11 days of the month only measured 0.02″ at the airport, and we don’t see much coming for the next 10-12 days.

EPS probability of rainfall exceeding 0.10″ through next Friday

A weak cool front nearby next Friday could trigger a few showers; however, widespread rain is very much in doubt.

The European Ensemble (EPS) suggests most of the Tennessee Valley, North Georgia, East Tennessee and the Carolinas have less than a 20-30% chance of getting more than 0.10″ of rainfall in the next seven days (pictured here in the blue/green shades).

October is usually dry, but the dryness will affect the temperature as well.

Dry ground heats and cools very efficiently.  That means cool nights and unusually warm days are likely through at least mid-month.

Record-setting dry spell or not?  Huntsville has recorded some long streaks of zero rainfall.  We had the seventh-longest streak without measurable rain last year in September and October with 31 days (ending October 19th).

The longest such streak happened in 1897: 48 days with zero rainfall ending on October 10th.

By the time we see another chance of a rain drop, Huntsville will have been without measurable rain for 19 days.  If we miss that opportunity, it could be after October 15th the next time we have a shot.  Then, we’d be pushing 26 days without rainfall and making a run at a top-10 longest dry spell on record.

Need some specifics about college football forecasts or next week’s weather? They’re always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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