Tropical Storm Harvey remains a threat to the Texas/Louisiana coastline through early Wednesday when it makes a second landfall near Lake Charles. Harvey finally moves away from southeast Texas, but the trek north and east toward the Tennessee Valley brings heavy rain and a risk of some strong thunderstorms.
Deep tropical moisture surging northward tonight keeps it warm and very humid. Clouds thicken, and rain begins as spotty showers as early as 5 to 9 AM. More widespread, heavy, soaking rain and thunderstorms move in by midday. As much as 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely around North Alabama and Southern Tennessee through Wednesday evening.
Waves of rainy, stormy weather: We have a very wet 72 hours ahead of us, but it will not rain the whole time. Here are the windows of time that look wettest for the Tennessee Valley:
Wednesday: 9 AM to 6 PM
Thursday: good chance of ‘scattered’ showers/storms between and 11 AM
Thursday: 11 AM to 8 PM (some severe storms may be possible)
Friday: spotty early AM, more widespread from 10 AM to 6 PM
Saturday: most of the rain moves out early in the day; isolated showers in the afternoon
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe storms around here on Thursday. We’ll be watching closely!
How much rain should you expect? Rainfall ranges from around 1-2” on the low end to as much as 5” on the high end around North and Central Alabama as well as Middle Tennessee through early Saturday morning. Individual model runs showing a lot of specific information will flip-flop some, but this will be a good soaking area-wide.
Since we’ve had a period of drier weather, flash flooding is not as likely as it was in the early part of August; however, be on your toes for all types of weather alerts through the end of the week! This system brings a limited (but real) risk of severe storms and a limited (but real) threat of some flooding.