Tropical Storm Harvey Stays Away – What About the Next One?

There is  a tropical wave we need to keep a close watch on.  It’s still approximately 1500 east-southeast of Bahamas right now and the track takes it west-northwest over the weekend. The next name on the list is Irma. If you hear that name floating around over the weekend, it’s most like this tropical system.

 

Tropical wave northeast of Harvey likely to become Irma

 

Most computer models take the system west-northwest toward the southern Bahamas by next week. Will the system move in that direction or will it turn and miss everyone? Typically the stronger the system, the more likely it will turn and leave the Bahamas and United States alone. Historically, weaker systems track more westerly. There is still plenty of time to watch it.

 

Computer Models For Invest 92-L

 

Here is a look at the discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. While it would
take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical
depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are
becoming less favorable for development. The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.