Cooler air settles in for the first full week of summer, but will it stay for the season?

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The summer solstice occurred last Wednesday (June 21st), which means we’re about to enter the first full week of summer. The same week that we’re going to be near record lows!

An unseasonably strong cold front will keep temperatures below average through the middle of the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 50s. Most record morning lows this week are in the 52°-55° range, so we’ll be pretty close to hitting a record!

This is a big change from how we started last summer. In the first full week of summer 2016 we were in the 90s! So, as you look forward to the coming season you’re probably wondering if it’s going to be as hot as last year or if this week will set a trend.

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a good chance of above average temperatures in the next 3 months. They take a lot into account when creating these outlooks, including long range models, climate trends, and global oscillations like the ENSO pattern.

We also need to consider the rain we’ve received this year compared to last year. Dry conditions and hot conditions feed into each other. When it’s hot for a longer time, it’s more likely to dry too (and vice versa). Last year we started to fall into a severe drought late in the summer, which lasted through the fall. That contributed to the record breaking heat of last year. Right now, we’re not overly dry for late June. If we can keep up with rainfall totals through the year, that could keep heat waves from lasting as long.

We’re likely to see some cooler stretches and a few hot stretches over the next few months though, so go ahead and be prepared for summer weather! Take it week by week and get regular forecast updates with Live Alert 19!