The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and a Tropical Storm Watch along parts of the Texas Gulf Coast.
There currently exists a tropical wave north of the Yucatan Peninsula, which is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds up to 40 mph. That means it is producing tropical storm force winds, but it's not organized enough to be considered a tropical cyclone. To be a cyclone it needs a clearly defined center of circulation, which we're not seeing at this time.
Even if the system does not organize enough to be considered a tropical cyclone, it is still producing tropical storm force winds and significant rains. For that reason, tropical storm advisories will still be issued along the coast where needed.
The system is expected to move north over Louisiana later this week, bringing significant rainfall over the Gulf states. That will likely translate into a messy and stormy end to the work week here in the Tennessee Valley.
The National Hurricane Center's Public Advisory for this potential tropical cyclone is below:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
to High Island, Texas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.7 North, longitude 88.7 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the northwest
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches
Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some
additional development of this system during the next day or two,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the north and east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday