Wintry weather possible this weekend (Wednesday Update)

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There is a possibility of wintry weather this weekend across the Tennessee Valley. It is important to note that it's only Wednesday and we are talking about Friday into Saturday. There is a lot that can change and keep checking back for further updates as we get closer to the weekend.

On Monday, one model output showed several inches of snow, while others didn't show much of anything. Since then models have been flipping back and forth with each run. It could take another day for models to really get ahold of this weather pattern. Without model consistency, the forecast will remain at least a little uncertain.

Compare and Contrast: Global Forecast System (GFS) vs European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF, or "Euro")

Here is a look at the morning run of the GFS.

GFS snow model as of 12z (6am CT) Wednesday, January 4, 2017.

This shows most of the accumulating snow across central and Alabama. It also shows several inches for south Atlanta/northern Macon through eastern North Carolina. Keep in mind this is the same model that had 4"-5" for our area just a few runs ago. If this one verifies, we would get a few flurries to a dusting across northeast Alabama with limited issues.

Now to the European:

ECMWF ("Euro") model based off data from 00Z (6pm CT) Tuesday January 3, 2017.

This system has significantly scaled back the snow totals since earlier this week, and it has the heaviest snow limited to eastern Tennessee/eastern North Carolina. This scenario would bring a light dusting to an inch of snow. This particular run is slightly more consistent with the run from yesterday morning, which called for just a dusting in North Alabama.

Models are in better agreement now than they were earlier this week, but there's still more inconsistency than we would like.

Bottom Line: Check back for further updates as we get closer to the weekend. It's too early to make a prediction on how much snow we will get if any. It will be cold either way with highs in the 30s Friday through Sunday.