A warming trend leading up to Christmas: 70s for the big day?

Frost flower photo by Jason Pyle

Frost flower photo by Jason Pyle

From Sunday to Monday, the temperature fell about 50 degrees; we’ll gradually rise nearly 50 degrees by Christmas Day and early next week, so we are trading in the frost flowers for weather that makes you wonder when the real flowers will start blooming again.

Tuesday starts cold: lows in the lower and middle 20s with a light north wind. Tuesday looks a tad milder with a high in the upper 40s to near 50ºF by mid-afternoon under a fair sky.

The weather stays relatively quiet this week with a slim chance of a little light rain with a passing front Wednesday into Thursday.

Other than that, we don’t see substantial rain again until the weekend and early next week.

Next cold front arrives Thursday: A few spotty showers may develop ahead of a cold front Wednesday (especially late in the day and Wednesday night), but most of us won’t get a drop of rain before Thursday afternoon. Even then, the odds are less than 50-50 that you could get measurable rain either day.

Once the front passes, we get a push of chilly air originating over Canada (not the bitter Arctic chill of late). That will drop temperatures to the 20s by Friday morning; Friday’s high only reaches the lower 50s with a northeast wind.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day: Days Six and Seven on the ‘7-Day Forecast’ can be perilous places for meteorologists in the month of December, and this particular week is no exception to that. Two runs of one model 24 hours apart show a world of difference: highs in the 50s to highs in the 60/70s.

Saturday and Sunday are trending unusually warm and potentially wet. American-run GFS guidance holds the rain off until Sunday night and Monday; European guidance is faster bringing rain in on Saturday.

For now, we are leaning GFS because of the trend it has shown toward a slow system; however, we reserve the right to add rain to the forecast on Saturday! It’s certainly not impossible to have some changes between now and then.

Need some specifics about the weekend or next week? They're always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the "Daily Forecast" section on Live Alert 19!

You can also change the 'Current Location' on Live Alert 19 to any destination in the country to check out travel weather conditions there.

-Jason
Connect with me!
Facebook: Jason Simpson's Fan Page
Twitter: @simpsonwhnt