More Active Weather Pattern Sets Up This Week

It’s been tough to find rain this fall, and when rain did fall it didn’t amount to much. Huntsville has only seen measurable rain on 7 days the past 3 months. The dry pattern that we’ve been stuck in is about to change though.

We’ve had weather systems clip us, but most of the energy has tracked north of Alabama. During the winter months the jet stream generally plunges further south, bringing some of that energy with it. It also allows more gulf moisture to pull in so that those systems can trigger rain. The jet stream digs further south this week with a cold front that moves through, and for the first time in a long time, rain chances look promising!

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Rain returns with a strong cold front Monday night

The next cold front moving in will have more moisture in front of it and more energy behind it. Ahead of the front winds will pick up (up to 30-40 mph gusts) Monday afternoon, but rain won’t move in until after 6PM. Then a line a showers will push through Monday night into Tuesday morning. With some heating left over from the afternoon a few strong storms are possible Monday evening. While severe weather doesn’t look likely at this time, heavy downpours and gusty winds (40-50 mph) are possible.

This front will drop a good 1-2 inches of rain across the Valley, but rainfall totals will be boosted even further with a second front. After several hours of dry time Tuesday afternoon another wave of rain will move in from the southwest Tuesday night. The bulk of this rain looks to move through Wednesday morning, but there is still some uncertainty with the timing of this second wave.

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Rainfall Potenital – GFS Model Outpout

Overall most of the Valley stands a good chance to pick up a much needed 1.50″+ with isolated spots of 2.00″ or more. This won’t end the drought, we would need 12-14 inches of rain spread out over weeks to end the drought, but this is a good start. This active pattern that sets up in the winter is why droughts often meet their end after the winter months.

Check the forecast regularly for more updates on our weather, plus track the rain as it moves through this week, with the Live Alert 19 App!