Where did the rain chances go? Second week of November is trending drier

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You may have noticed Monday that we were predicting a more robust chance of rain by start of next week, notably for next Monday, November 14.

Those rain chances have since…well…dried up.

Below is a side-by-side look at the model guidance meteorologists analyze while generating a forecast. This particular data is from Monday, November 7 and it depicts the possible rain chances for Wednesday, November 16 at 12z (6am CT).

Both of these forecast models were run on Monday afternoon.

Both of these forecast models were run on Monday afternoon.

Although the forecast models are not in total agreement, they do hint at a weather system that would produce rain over the Southeast, including the Tennessee Valley.

But on Tuesday, November 8, we noticed that the forecast models’ anticipation for rain dried up. The weather system responsible for bringing the promising rain is forecast to trend further north and east.

Forecast models running on November 8 are trending towards drier weather for November 16.

Forecast models running on November 8 are trending towards drier weather for November 16.

To be sure, the weather pattern lately has been abnormal, and day-to-day, we are noticing model changes when one goes beyond Day 5 in the 7-to-10 day forecast. We know it is frustrating — it frustrates us too! — but this is why you may see large jumps in rain potential in our on-air forecasts and on your Live Alert 19 app.