Based on climatological averages, yes. On average, September sees more named storms each year than any other month. 78 % of tropical storm days occur from Mid-August to Mid-October. This is the time of year that the Atlantic has the best environment for cyclone formation.
Warmer waters help cyclones develop and the ocean temperatures are warmest at the end of summer, after they’ve had all of June and July to warm up. As ocean temperatures are rising through the summer, wind shear is also falling. Wind shear, the change in wind speed or direction with height, can tear tropical cyclones apart. Minimal wind shear allows storms to develop, while warm ocean water helps power them. These two things come together from Mid-August to Mid-October.
It does seem like the season is getting more active too; in fact, there are currently 3 areas of tropical interest in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Julia formed over Florida this past week and has since weakened into a tropical depression off the coast of the Carolinas. Then we ended the week with Tropical Storm Karl developing out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Finally, there’s a tropical wave just barely off the coast of Africa that the National Hurricane Center has given a 70% chance of developing further over the next 5 days.
Hurricane season isn’t over quite yet, so keep checking in with WHNT News 19 for regular updates!