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Low chance of a lot of rain: spotty storms more likely Tuesday through the weekend

It’s a low chance of rain, but it’s not a low chance of a sprinkle!  Any storms that develop near you this week may bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and intense lightning.  Track this week’s scattered storms with WHNT.com’s Interactive Radar or swipe over to the radar feature on Live Alert 19!

Hot, humid Tuesday - be on the lookout for a few isolated but heavy storms!

Hot, humid Tuesday – be on the lookout for a few isolated but heavy storms!

Here’s the thing about “scattered storms:” they are uneven by nature. A 20% chance of storms does not mean “light rain,” and a 50% chance of storms does not mean “heavy rain all day.” Those numbers speak to the probability of rain in the area and the coverage.

Odds of at least 0.10" of rain Tuesday (9/13)

Odds of at least 0.10″ of rain Tuesday (9/13)

Our forecast specifically looks at the probability of at least 0.10” of rain in a 24-hour period.

We still do not see a widespread, everybody-in-the-Tennessee-Valley-gets-a-soaking kind of rain. It generally takes a very dynamic storm system to bring that, and that’s what we are missing this week.

What we do have is abundant “fuel:” heat and humidity. So, instead of a guarantee of rain, we are on watch for daily, spotty storms that produce heavy rain, 30-40 mph wind gusts, and intense lightning.  That’s what happened Monday evening in Cullman County; radar estimates as much as 1.5-2.0″ of rain near Garden City, and Mike Wilhelm captured these images of those photogenic storms:

Football Friday and the Weekend: The chance of rain climbs into the 40-60% range for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. What’s the best way to read those numbers?

Friday: widely scattered storms, some get it some don’t. There could be some lightning delays at high school games this week, so be aware of that as you make plans to be outdoors Friday evening.

Saturday: some showers or storms are possible at most any time, but the better chance appears to be later in the day and into the evening (think about the timing of this past weekend’s rain – mainly after 4-5 PM).

Sunday: a cold front moving through brings the highest concentration of showers and storms, but we still don’t see even amounts of rain over 0.10” for the entire Tennessee Valley. Timing on Sunday is suspect now; however, the greater chance may well occur early in the day with most of the action shifting south in the afternoon and evening.

Rain should be gone by Monday, and we look at warm, dry weather for most of next week.

Need some specifics about the weekend or next week? They’re always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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