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Tropical Storm Hermine strengthening, Hurricane Warnings in effect for Florida’s Big Bend

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Hermine as of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Hermine as of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.

 

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

…HERMINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO…
…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 295 MI…475 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI…510 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

Hermine10pmStats

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Suwannee River westward
to Mexico Beach Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended
from Altamaha Sound Georgia northward to the South Santee River
South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Marineland Florida to South Santee River

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in the
Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

Hurricane Warnings as well as Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida. (Information valid as of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.)

Hurricane Warnings as well as Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida. (Information valid as of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.)

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.0 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Hermine is expected to
be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning Thursday night. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Thursday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Destin to Indian Pass…1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka…4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka…2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach…including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear…1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible overnight near the central
Florida coast. The tornado risk will increase through Thursday and
spread into north Florida and southeast Georgia.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart