What will the future hold for the tropics?

 

Spaghetti

We’ve been hearing a lot about the tropical wave Invest-99L, but it hasn’t done much over the past week. Some models have scaled back the expected intensity of the wave and many have come together on a more west/northwest track, but there are still a lot of uncertainties ahead.

More thunderstorm activity is present as of Saturday morning, but the system is still disorganized. This disorganization has made it difficult for models to get a good hold on the system. Most models are now bringing it into the Gulf early next week, where more favorable conditions for development are waiting. There still remains a question of how far west into the Gulf the system could track though.
Steering
A factor in how far west or east I-99L will go is the high pressure over the Carolinas. This upper level high will likely help steer I-99L towards the gulf, but by early next week this feature will start to move east. If the high pressure remains strong it could lead to I-99L tracking further towards Texas. If the high pressure weakens it could lead to I-99L tracking closer to the coast of Florida. Where I-99L ends up could in turn help determine how weak or strong the system gets by determining how long it has to develop over the Gulf waters.

So, while this tropical wave is looking like less of a threat now than it did earlier this week, it’s still something to watch. Stick with WHNT News 19 for the latest updates!