Widespread rain? Wednesday brings a chance at some heavy rain

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…and boy could we use it. The heat index by Wednesday afternoon looks nasty.

7-Day 1A

Futurecast “Feels Like” Temperature at 4 PM Wednesday; combination of temperature and humidity

It’s a chance, but it’s the best-looking set-up we have had in quite some time. A disturbance to the northwest, hot and humid air here, and the potential for some big thunderstorms upstream on Wednesday afternoon give us hope for some widespread rain around here through Wednesday evening.

We maintain a 50% chance of showers and storms on Wednesday; a few pop-up here and there, but the best chance of storms comes Wednesday afternoon and evening from around 3 PM to roughly 10 PM. A large area of storms builds in West Tennessee from midday to early afternoon.

RPM "Futurecast" at 7 PM Wed. (guidance, not exact)

RPM "Futurecast" at 7 PM Wed. (guidance, not exact)

There is a chance that those storms could develop into a sizable line that brings rain, storms, and some gusty winds across most of the Tennessee Valley before 10 PM Wednesday. The 50% chance of rain involves two factors: confidence and coverage. It’s a toss up for both; there is good confidence in scattered storms, but confidence is shaky that we will see that big line. Without the big line, coverage ends up rather spotty.

Keep track of storms whether they are severe or not:
WHNT.com's Maps & Radar Page
Live Alert 19 (videos, blog posts, warnings, lightning alerts, radar)
Baron Saf-T-Net (phone/text)

Thursday and Friday: Hotter air follows Wednesday night’s chance of storms; temperatures soar to the 95ºF to 100ºF range on Thursday afternoon with a heat index as high as 106ºF. Some isolated storms may pop in the hottest part of the day, but just like Wednesday, there is a chance of some heavier storms Thursday night. Confidence is shaky at best, so just keep that in the back of your mind as we watch the situation unfold.

-Jason
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