Embrace the Uncertainty: only scattered storms in our near future

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Let’s be real.  We do not foresee any guarantees of heavy soaking rain for any one specific area in the next 7-14 days.  

In fact, it would be a minor miracle if every square inch of the Tennessee Valley got more than an inch of rain in the next week.

Having said that, individual showers and storms have the capacity to produce well over one inch of rain in a short time; that’s great for the spots where they occur, but we need it to be widespread and come over several days so the ground can soak it in.

Most communities have a good shot at around 1/3” to 3/4” of an inch of rain from multiple showers and storms rumbling through the region between now and Sunday night.  A few will get a lot, many will get a little, and some spots may get missed all together.

Without rain, it gets hot.  The hotter it gets, the faster things dry out.  A building drought may slow it growth with some showers and storms around this week, but it looks rather dry with slightly cooler weather next week.

Beyond that, we see the heat intensify with little-to-no substantial rainfall through mid-June.  The top end of longer-range guidance shows highs as hot as 100-105ºF on multiple occasions after June 9th.

Did you really just say that?  Yep.

Temperatures greater than 100ºF are pretty rare for the Tennessee Valley in June; it's only happened eight times since 1959.  Four of those occurred in 2012.

The earliest 100-degree reading in Huntsville came on June 3, 1911: 101ºF.

Hundred-degree heat is not on the "likely" end of the spectrum, but two different ensemble products show at least a small chance of temperatures surging past 100ºF on several occasions in June.

Whether it's low-100s or middle/upper 90s, it's going to be hot.  The prospects for drought-busting rain are very, very low in the next 2-4 weeks, so don't look for much help from rain for cooler weather.

-Jason
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