Clouds thicken tonight, and patchy, generally light showers develop through Tuesday morning. The first wave of rain looks meager: just enough to have an umbrella or rain jacket for early-risers in case you need it. Those rain drops will be fighting a lot of low-level dry air to survive, so it is entirely possible that a green radar map Tuesday morning won’t exactly mean a soaking wet drive to work or school.
Other waves of showers coming on Wednesday with a cold front and Thursday with another change in air mass look more substantial; they may produce as much as a quarter-inch of rain over a broad area.
Clouds and occasional showers keep temperatures below average for mid-May. The “average” high temperature for Huntsville climbs from 81ºF (Monday) to 83ºF by next Monday. Expect actual high temps to be as much as 5 to 10ºF below those averages throughout the week and into the weekend.
Friday’s storm potential: Cool, dry air blowing in on Wednesday and Thursday reduce the instability around here, so there is little fuel for big-time thunderstorms this week.
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Warmer, more humid air surges north on Friday setting up contrasting air masses over the Tennessee Valley; that contrast should serve as the focal point for some heavy rain and thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening.
The severe weather threat seems rather low for now, but we will need to keep an eye on the situation for all of the outdoor events happening like the Limestone Sheriff’s Rodeo, the Poke Salat Festival, and CASA Night in the Garden.
Total rainfall will be variable (as usual), but there is a good chance that model guidance like this (Monday morning's GFS output) is on to something with multiple rounds of showers and storms in our future.
Most of this comes between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning; then we dry out before things get a lot hotter and more humid into next week.