Valleywx.com: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Monday & Tuesday

outlook400

When the Storm Prediction Center uses wording like this:

…MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES…

You have to sit up and pay attention to what’s happening out there.

day48prob

That’s the SPC’s Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. Notice how the two circles overlap in Alabama and Tennessee? A long-duration severe weather threat exists on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Exact timing is still uncertain, but we believe the greatest threat of severe storms (including those that produce tornadoes) would be Monday night and Tuesday morning then again on Tuesday during the daylight hours.

There is also a flood threat to consider. April has been a relatively wet month for most of Alabama; although it has been drier in Tennessee, heavy rain of this magnitude could cause flooding on a widespread basis. Most of the rain in this seven-day outlook falls between 7 PM Sunday and 7 PM Tuesday:

QPF

The Bottom Line:

It’s Friday evening. The severe weather threat will begin in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday and move east toward Arkansas and Louisiana on Sunday. I would not be surprised in the least if a HIGH RISK is drawn over Arkansas, Louisiana, and maybe even western Mississippi and Tennessee for Sunday and Sunday night.

That area is currently in a MODERATE RISK:

day3otlk_0730

These risk areas are really for Emergency Management preparation and public awareness of what’s coming. Watches and Warnings are the alerts you need to listen for; that’s when it is time to take action.

In Alabama and Middle Tennessee, we’ve got a long time to wait on this. Use your time wisely! Check to be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is working. If it’s making a high, piercing, screeching noise – it’s probably toast and needs to be replaced.

Got a smart phone? We’ve got apps to give you weather support there: WHNT News 19 Mobile Applications. The WHNT News 19 Weather App gives you the option to “upgrade” to iMap Weather Radio. That’s an app within an app; we’re not able to give that service away since it’s owned by another company, but you can purchase the weather radio portion (which works wonderfully) through WHNT’s app.

No smart phone? Baron Saf-T-Net may be the way to go for you.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty; as the details get clearer, we can be more specific about times, places, etc. Until then, don’t panic – just prepare for whatever may be coming next week.

-Jason
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